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Why is it important to have better estimates of numbers of trafficking victims?
Even after nearly ten years of attention to human trafficking, estimates of the number of human trafficking victims are very limited and generally lack empirical merit. Trafficking is a complex issue and it is reasonably argued that accurately estimating the extent of such underground criminal activity is a difficult task. Therefore, the counter-trafficking community has yet to come up with reliable methodologies for getting those numbers.

Without reliable numbers it is difficult to know if counter-trafficking policies and interventions are making a difference. In addition, limited resources are being allocated with little understanding of the scale and scope of the issue. This lack of understanding has significant impact on the efficiency and progress of counter-trafficking interventions.

The UNIAP Trafficking Estimates Initiative.
In 2007, UNIAP launched a competition in which NGOs, academics, and government and non-government research institutions were invited to submit proposals for innovative, rigorous methodologies to estimate the numbers of trafficking victims in a given geographic area and/or industry. The purpose of this initiative was two-fold:

- First, to address the need for accurate estimates of trafficking victims. This data is needed to understand the scale of the problem in different areas and industries, in order to inform intervention design and prioritization.
- Second, the competitive format aimed to attract quality statistical and research expertise to the field of human counter-trafficking - a field where the lack of reliable quantitative statistics has widely been acknowledged as an inhibiting factor in counter-trafficking programming.
The competition received many impressive entries, and after two rounds of review, a shortlist of six was selected to present and defend their methodologies before an audience of peers and judges in Bangkok. The judges reviewing the proposals were Dr. David Feingold (UNESCO), Dr. Lisa Rende Taylor (UNIAP), and Professor Zhang Jie (Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences).

The methodological approaches of the proposals, as hoped, were diverse and innovative, and - most importantly - locally specific, practical, and feasible. As part of UNIAP’s Trafficking Estimates Initiative, in 2008 UNIAP will provide direct funding and technical support to the top three selected methodologies, and support will also be sought for the three honorable mentions, recognizing the high standard of these as well. Publication and results sharing is also a high priority, hopefully leading to eventual replication of methodologies in other regions for piloting, modification, and - eventually, it is hoped - reliable systems for quantifying human trafficking over time, in many regions of the world.

SIREN Report GMS-03 outlines the process and the judging criteria of the UNIAP Trafficking Estimates Initiative, presenting the top three methodologies in order of merit, with the three honorable mentions following in alphabetical order. This documentation may be helpful for counter-trafficking communities in the world seeking methods to derive more accurate and feasible methods of scoping trafficking magnitude in their region.

The research of the top three finalists is in the process of getting funded by UNIAP now. Check back here for updates on their research over the course of 2008!

Team 1: University of Miami, School of Communication
Team 2: Labour Rights Promotion Network, Thailand (LPN) & Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
Team 3: An Giang Dong Thap Alliance for the Prevention of Trafficking (ADAPT), Vietnam

 
 
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